PRESS: Cbank says may revise inflation, GDP forecast upward

MOSCOW, Oct 6 (PRIME) -- Russia’s central bank may revise up a forecast on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, head of the monetary policy department Kirill Tremasov said on Wednesday in an interview with daily Izvestiya.

“The July GDP forecast was 4–4.5% growth for this year. Current statistics show that the economy is moving rather at the upper end of that forecast, and if there is a revision in October, it will most likely be upward. The same is true for inflation. The July forecast was 5.7–6.2%,” Tremasov said.

The central bank sees the effect of the ruble dynamics on inflation as neutral, Tremasov also said.

“The ruble exchange rate is where it was a year ago, even a little stronger now, and taking into account inflation accumulated over this time we can say that the ruble has significantly strengthened in real terms. At the moment, we assess the effect of the exchange rate dynamics on inflation as neutral,” he said.

Tremasov also said the central bank believes that it is too early to talk about the possibility of lowering the key rate.

“It is very early to say that the rate hike cycle is over and that we are beginning to consider the possibility of reducing the cut,” he said.

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